American Research Group Confirms What We Already Know: ITMFsA

American Research Group conducted a survey recently. 45% of Americans want to begin impeachment proceedings against Dubya, and a majority want the same for Darth Cheney. As usual these days, Republicans are off babbling in a corner, while Democrats and Independents agree: ITMFsA.

ARG
ITMsFA (I added the plural.)

2008 Presidential Race: Who's Hot and Who's Not

Hot:

Fred Thompson. A pair of polls have the Fred Dalton Thompson campaign doing a Tennessee Waltz. A new Rasumssen poll has Thompson neck-and-neck with Giuliani at 24%. Normally, I might discount a single Ramussen polls (why? here here). However, the latest LAT/Bloomberg poll out also has Thompson over 20% and in second place. And he's not even officially in the race. Yet.

Not

John McCain. McCain's is down to the pre-teens in both polls. Ouch. He might be doing far better in a general election where his independence would be valued. But not in a Reep primary; McCain went after BushCo when it was the King, and then oddly supported BushCo as it become more and more radioactive.


Today's lessons in politics. Not having a recent track record certainly helps. This is especially true for Senators. Or so it seems. It also helps to appear to not be going senile.

Maybe the Polls Might Help the Dems Grow a Spine

From a recent WaPo/ABC national survey, as reported by Mystery Pollster on Pollster.com:

35% approve of the way President Bush is handling his job; 62% disapprove.

39% approve of the way Congress is doing its job; 53% disapprove.

Approval of the Democrats in Congress has dropped from 54% to 44% since April -- "with the decline occurring almost exclusively among strong opponents of the Iraq War."

From the poll results (formatted for readability):

[Do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?

Worth Fighting
Strongly - 24
Somewhat - 12

Not Worth Fighting
Somewhat - 12
Strongly - 50

Do you think the number of U.S. military forces in Iraq should be (increased), (decreased), or kept about the same?

Increased - 19
Decreased - All/Immediately - 15
Decreased - Not All/Not Immediately - 40
Kept About the Same - 23

Do you think the United States is or is not making significant progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq?

Is - 32
Is Not - 64

Do you think [the recent] increase of U.S. forces [to Iraq] will or will not improve the security situation there over the next few months?

Will - 39
Will not - 58

Do you think (the United States must win the war in Iraq in order for the broader war on terrorism to be a success), or do you think (the war on terrorism can be a success without the United States winning the war in Iraq?)

US must win war in Iraq - 37
Can be a success without US winning war in Iraq - 56

Overall, do you feel that you can or cannot trust the Bush administration to honestly and accurately report intelligence about security threats facing the United States?

Can - 38
Cannot - 60

Bush's Alternate Reality

Dan Froomkin has a great synopsis on Dubya's weird point-of-view on Iraq:

I often wonder why more news stories don't start: "President Bush yesterday again denied reality. . . . "

And then along comes this delightful surprise from Jennifer Loven of the Associated Press: "Confronted with strong opposition to his Iraq policies, President Bush decides to interpret public opinion his own way. Actually, he says, people agree with him.

"Democrats view the November elections that gave them control of Congress as a mandate to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq. ...

"The president says Democrats have it all wrong: the public doesn't want the troops pulled out -- they want to give the military more support in its mission.

"'Last November, the American people said they were frustrated and wanted a change in our strategy in Iraq,' he said April 24, ahead of a veto showdown with congressional Democrats over their desire to legislation a troop withdrawal timeline. 'I listened. Today, General David Petraeus is carrying out a strategy that is dramatically different from our previous course.'

"Increasingly isolated on a war that is going badly, Bush has presented his alternative reality in other ways, too. He expresses understanding for the public's dismay over the unrelenting sectarian violence and American losses that have passed 3,400, but then asserts that the public's solution matches his.

"'A lot of Americans want to know, you know, when?' he said at a Rose Garden news conference Thursday. 'When are you going to win?'

"Also in that session, Bush said: 'I recognize there are a handful there, or some, who just say, "Get out, you know, it's just not worth it. Let's just leave." I strongly disagree with that attitude. Most Americans do as well.'

"In fact, polls show Americans do not disagree, and that leaving -- not winning -- is their main goal. . . .

"Bush aides say poll questions are asked so many ways, and often so imprecisely, that it is impossible to conclude that most Americans really want to get out. Failure, Bush says, is not what the public wants -- they just don't fully understand that that is just what they will get if troops are pulled out before the Iraqi government is capable of keeping the country stable on its own. . . .

"Independent pollster Andrew Kohut said of the White House view: 'I don't see what they're talking about.'"

This Just In: Obama Still Black

The Washington Post has a rather lengthy article on Obama and race and the race for the presidency.

In separate interviews, 10 white supporters who attended the Tampa fundraising rally talked about their perceptions of the dicey realm of race and its impact on Obama's electability. Though they admire his character, achievements, charisma and political philosophy, many expressed fear that racial prejudice might stymie his campaign.

Okay, that's an interesting topic. The article goes on with this finding that makes me somewhat optimistic on race relations in this country:

Once, polls in races between a white and black candidate were wildly unreliable. White voters have had a history of telling pollsters they will vote along their party lines when faced with a black candidate; then, in the privacy of the booth, they cross party lines to vote for the white candidate.

...

[T]he phenomenon seems to be fading, according to a Pew Research Center paper, "Can You Trust What Polls Say About Obama's Electoral Prospects?"

In 2006, when white Republican Bob Corker beat black Democrat Harold Ford Jr. to represent Tennessee in the Senate, Corker's lead was overstated in the polls. Whites voted for Ford in largely the numbers they had told pollsters they would.

Mystery Pollster picks up a recent survey conducted by Quinnipiac University:

[B]elieve it or not, not all Americans know that Obama is black. Here is the result released just last Friday from a national sample of adults surveyed by Quinnipiac University (Q33):

What race do you consider Barack Obama?

2% White
45% Black
0% Asian
7% Mixed/other
9% Mixed Black and White
37% Don't know

Aside from the mixed up mixed race responses (the question was open-ended), the news is in. Barack Obama is sill Black.

Quinnipiac Poll here

In other news, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.

Fox News: Dumbing Down the Bias

We all know the allegations - Fox News is biased towards the right, and dumbs down the news. Are these allegations correct? Certainly the democratic candidates for president thought so when they snubbed Fox News for their first debate. And we all know that Dick Cheney appears almost exclusively on Fox (except when he's rolling Tim Russert, but I digress).

Let's take a look a what researchers and others have found. First, World Public Opinion completed a year-long analysis of news sources. Their key finding:

[T]he frequency of [Iraq War] misperceptions varies significantly according to individuals’ primary source of news. Those who primarily watch Fox News are significantly more likely to have misperceptions [about the Iraq War], while those who primarily listen to NPR or watch PBS are significantly less likely.

This comes on the heels of a recent Pew Center poll showing that Fox News viewers are among the least informed on current events.

In addition, researchers Ethan Kaplan and Stefano DellaVigna analyzed the question of Fox News bias by looking at the impact of Fox News on voting patterns. From the National Bureau of Economic Research:

[Kaplan and Della Vigna] found that the introduction of Fox News had a small but statistically significant effect on the vote share in Presidential elections between 1996 and 2000. Republicans gained an estimate of between 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points in the towns that broadcast Fox News. They also find that Fox News had a significant effect on Senate vote share and on voter turnout. Their estimates imply that Fox News convinced 3 to 8 percent of its viewers to vote Republican according to a first audience measure, and 11 to 28 percent according to a second, more restrictive audience measure.

Here's some other info on the Fox New Bias:

• Media Matters reviews a series of internal Fox memos.
• A documentary on Fox News - Outfoxed.
• Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting covers Brit Hume (from the way back machine - pre 9/11).
• Journalists have found Fox News to be, far and away, the most conservative news source.
• The public outing of terrorist who, unfortunately, wasn't really a terrorist.
• Osama, oops I meant Obama, attended a Madrassa, as reported by Fox. Nice.

Pew Poll on Knowledge of Public Affairs

Click on image to view


A typically fascinating poll was released by the Pew Center over the weekend, this one covering knowledge of public affairs. An interesting result is Daily Show viewers are far more knowledgeable of pubic affairs than are viewers of, oh say, FOX. Everyone surprised by that can stop reading now.

Some demographic differences are understandable - more educated people are more informed, as are richer folks. Older people are generally more informed than younger people. I didn't know how much more men consume news than women, though.

I'm not surprised that Northerners are more informed than Southerners.

Here's the analysis.

Here's the questionnaire.

Take the quiz.

Break out the french fries, brie and croissants!

An important new poll is out. I'll jump right to it:

Public Agenda and its partner Foreign Affairs today made public the fourth edition of the Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index (CFPI)...

The Spring 2007 Anxiety Indicator stands at 137, well above the neutral
mid-point of 100 and a seven point increase since September 2006. "The
Anxiety Indicator is moving closer to the 150 mark, the 'red zone' that to
me would signal a full blown crisis of public confidence," said Public
Agenda Chairman Daniel Yankelovich. Full report at: publicagenda.org/CFPI4

-- Public support for military solutions in many scenarios is virtually
off the table for most of the public. In dealing with Iran, support
for possible military action is in the single digits (8 percent)

-- 70 percent say that criticism that the United States has been too
quick to resort to war is at least partly justified (31 percent say
it's "totally justified"). On what the government must do to fight
terrorism, 67 percent say we should put more emphasis on diplomatic
and economic methods, while 27 percent say more emphasis on military
efforts

-- 84 percent say "initiating military force only when we have the
support of our allies" should be important to our foreign policy (51
percent say "very important")

Great news, Francophiles! Break out the Croque Monsieur, Perrier with a twist, and a nice bottle of Burgundy for lunch. Yes, in honor of the French, go and take a three-hour lunch.

Bill "Nostradumbass" Kristol may want to join you. He needs a three hour lunch. And he needs to get drunk. Just be ready lots of tears and self-pity.

Here are links to the full report, and analysis by the authors.

What the polls are showing

The latest CBS poll shows strong support for the democratic proposal to set a timetable for US involvement in Iraq.

More than half of Americans support the U.S. House provision setting a timetable that calls for most U.S. troops to be out of Iraq by September, 2008. According to a new CBS News poll, 59% of those surveyed favored the provision while 37% are opposed.

On a related note, see Glenn Greenwald's latest column on this topic.

Fox News' latest poll has Dubya with a 61% disapproval. That's the highest disapproval rating for Dubya. Ever. Surprisingly, the Fox headline was about dems being confident of taking the White House in 2008. Go figure.

Survey USA has a cool interactive feature up on their home page that allows you to look at head-to-head general election matchups of all the major presidential candidates.

As always, Pollster.com is the single best web site for polling-related matters. I also recommend Professor Pollkatz; his graphic of Dubya's approval represented as a toilet flush is both hilarious and telling.

America wants an Iraq deadline: Pew Poll

I want to start this by noting that Pew is one of the best national polling firms. I like Pew Polls because they ask interesting questions and provide a somewhat different analysis than you will get from other major pollsters.

The latest poll is no exception. For example, by a 59-33 rate, Americans want their representative to vote for an August 2008 troop pullout. The break democrats and republicans into moderate and liberal/conservative.

If you've followed any polling numbers over the past two years, you will surely know that independents views much more closely match those of democrats, and this poll is no exception. Large majorities of dems and indies want their representative to vote for the August 2008 pullout.

Reeps - surprise! - want us to stay in Iraq indefinitely. An interesting finding is that moderate reeps only favor staying past 2008 by a 49-44 rate. The conservatives have an alternate reality that I cannot seem to channel, so I won't even try to make sense of their views.

Here some links:

To the poll results

To Pew's own analysis

And to analysis by Mystery Pollster over at pollster.com. (I linked to their home page; scroll down, you will find it. But, the site is ever-interesting.)

Four years of war - What do Americans and Iraqis now think?

Today is the fourth anniversary of the Stupid Pointless War. A slew of polls have been released - both of American and Iraqi sentiments. Here are some highlights.

ABC News/USA Today/BBC/ARD released a poll of Iraqis. They track the new results against those November 2005. The mood in Iraq has certainly darkened. More than half of respondents have a relative or close friend who has been killed or wounded. Opposition to US forces has grown considerably.

Mystery Pollster has this synopsis:

• 78% of Iraqi adults oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq; 22% support it.
• 65% believe coalition forces should stay in Iraq until its government and security forces are stronger and operating independently; 35% believe they should leave now.
• 56% do not think Iraq is in a civil war, 42% think it is.
• In a sidebar article, ABC Polling Director Gary Langer describes in detail the "extensive planning, coordinated effort -- and some luck" involved in fielding this survey, including "harrowing tales" of interviewers who "witnessed some of the bombings, shootings and beatings that, as the survey shows, are widespread in Iraq."
  

CBS News has poll of Americans on their attitudes the Stupid Pointless War.

After four years of war, Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for success in Iraq and a majority wants U.S. troops to begin coming home, according to an analysis of data from CBS News and CBS News/New York Times polls.

Americans did not expect the war to last this long, nor did they think it would cost as many lives as it has.

The news article has some interesting analyses of a poll CBS conducted four years ago. Certainly, the Administration, Bill "The Vampire" Kristol (AKA Nostradumbass), and the NeoCon idealists all ought to be taking a hard look their expectations before this war started, and the mess they have wrought.

Nah. Watch Bush hit that drive.

Latest poll results - Harriet Miers redux?

The latest NY Times/CBS poll was released, and the results are simply horrible for the Bush Administration. Total support dropped below 30%, (with 61% opposed) and the right track-wrong track numbers are 23% to 68%. BushCo's foreign policy support stands at 25% (to be discussed in the next post - coming soon).

The numbers on Iraq are equally dismal, support = 23%, opposed = 71%. I won't even get rolling on Iraq right now, there are other points I want to move on to cover today - like health care.

On health care, an outright majority of Americans puts, 'health insurance for all,' as the top domestic priority. 90%(!!!!) think the health care system in this country needs fundamental change or be completely rebuilt. Please read the survey results, there are a battery of questions on health care that bear review.

The poll also gives the dems a 3-1 advantage over the reeps as the party more likely to improve the health care system. (On top of this, the dems also have a 14 point general favorability advantage over the reeps.)

With all of this news, you would think the reeps would be circling the wagons, rallying around their president. Uhh, no.

Mr. Bush’s approval rating dropped 13 percentage points since last fall among Republicans, 65 percent of whom now say they approve of the way he is handling his job as president, compared with 78 percent last October.

Yes, its gloom and doom time for the reeps. Consider some of the commentary coming out of the big CPAC convention, as covered by that right wing blog, the Politico.

I’m disenchanted, I’m disenfranchised, I’m just dissed

--David Bossie, president of Citizens United

The war is a disaster and [Bush] flubbed the [immigration] issue

--Phyllis Schlafly of the Eagle Forum

Well, maybe this is all just animus against BushCo. After all, they have been the most imcompetent administration - perhaps of all time (though my Dad really has it in for Jimmy Carter, but that's another post for another day).

Here's what Phyllis had to say about the other reep POTUS candidates:

They’re all equally unacceptable

Ouch. There you have it, folks - the state of the reeps today ain't pretty.

Iraq War Poll - How Low Can It Go?

The latest ABC News/Washington Post opinion poll has grave news for BushCo and merry warmongering band of neo-conservatives. 64% now say the Iraq War was not worth fighting, and 56% now say US forces should withdraw - even if civil strife doesn't end. I believe this is the largest margin by which Americans say they are completely fed up with the war and its incompetent management.

Its time leave. Starting now.

Edit: Dan Froomkin covers the poll story today, and adds this snippet:

* 63 percent feel they cannot trust the Bush administration to honestly and accurately report intelligence about possible threats from other countries.