A new U.S. public opinion survey shows a deepening pessimism over the situation in Iraq. I believe this is noteworthy because opinion polls from two months ago showed a significant uptick in optimism over the occupation efforts. That was because the much-ballyhooed Surge + PR campaign made some people think that things were changing for the better in Iraq. Gotcha! Again!
I wonder how many times folks will be fooled again on Iraq. After the first round of elections, then the second, things would get better. Once we offed the dead-enders, things would get better. After the insurgents would finally realize their tactics wouldn't work over the long term, and (my favorite) the situation will really turn around in the next six months.
Its been a steady spiral downwards, with a couple of dead-cat bounces along the way. I believe a major reason why there is such pessimism over Iraq is the gap between the obvious realities in Iraq just don't jive with what BushCo, the NeoCons, Fox News and Pentagon are saying. We are all used to the lies from public officials; its rarer to have those lies be so obviously and outrageously exposed on a weekly and even daily basis.
This brings us to the key September report from Pope, er, General Petraeus. A lot of lefties in the blogosphere see hand-writing in the wall where the Good General reports progress, the conventional wisdom says give us another Freidman, and the cycle of insanity continues. Its a very plausible scenario.
I'm not buying into that - at least not yet. A sunny speech from General Petraeus won't mean anything without some huge initiative on our part or from the Iraqis themselves. I don't see that happening. The Iraqi government is in full-on disarray. I see dissolution of the government as far more likely than any meaningful reconciliation.
On the US front, the Reeps are slowly realizing they could go the way of the Whigs if the status quo continues. The Dems are craven and cowardly for sure, but the Reeps are most certainly walking the plank. There's also another surge, though this time without the PR campaign, going on right now that is stretching the troops even more.
This new surge won't matter, either. The policy has completely failed. The end is near to the status quo; a presidential election is coming up. Change is in the air and enough sensually-challenged Reeps smell it.
Oh yes, some will accuse of wanting the US to lose, that we hate America, and all that. We you know what? Those idiots can take a flying fuck to the moon. These villians don't even need to be responded to in any meaningful way, other than to be slapped in the face. They are thoroughly corrupted and evil. Not standing up to them means more will die, more children suffer. The NeoCons and the liars are on the run. The folly of Iraq should keep them on their heels for a generation - once this has reached its bitter conclusion. Its a bitter-sweet conclusion - the death of NeoConjobism.
Back to the near-term, I believe that when September comes, the US will begin the exit in earnest. That's no reason for optimism as 500 troops will probably die between now end then. That's just the reality of the situation - it won't be politically expedient to get our young soldiers out of harm's way before then.
(For anyone interested, I've made a number of references without citations - too little time for that right now. Drop a comment on any comment and I will gladly provide a reference in a day or so.)